|The modern business world regularly forces managers to make decisions of great importance in complex situations and in the face of much uncertainty that involve many possible options for action. Successful decision-making, therefore, requires the ability to structure complex problems, to analyze available options in an uncertain world, and to finally make the best decision given the information available. This course teaches you frameworks for how to formulate managerial decision models that represent real-world problems in a wide range of business areas including operations, marketing, finance, and strategy. You learn how to analyze and ultimately solve such decision models and to understand the managerial interpretations of your model solution. The skills you learn in this course will greatly enhance your analytical problem solving capabilities.
This course develops and uses Excel spreadsheets as a modeling platform, because spreadsheets have become an essential medium of business analysis. You learn how to apply analytical tools including optimization, simulation, and decision trees to examine managerial decision models using Excel commands, functions, and add-ins. You practice good spreadsheet design and presentation principles, and perform comprehensive sensitivity analyses using your spreadsheet models to check the robustness of the proposed decisions. Business applications include those of resource allocation (how to utilize available resources optimally), risk analysis (how to incorporate uncertainty in problem parameters), and sequential decision-making through time. In case discussions you explore the effectiveness of various spreadsheet model designs in informing managerial decision-making.
|Based on exams, homework assignments, which include spreadsheet model building and case analyses, and class participation. Cannot be taken pass/fail. No auditors.|
|Any previous or concurrent exposure to statistics at the level of 41000 and financial accounting at the level of 30000 will be helpful. Although the example models discussed in this class cross many functions of business, little background in those areas is required. Some basic financial and statistical concepts such as NPV (Net Present Value), mean/variance of random variables, cash flow and income statement, etc. will be often used in examples and assignment problems in the class. I will briefly review these concepts when necessary and more importantly, I will demonstrate how to calculate these metrics in Excel. If you are not familiar with these concepts, it is essential that you are willing to put in extra efforts.
I will assume that you have some familiarity with Excel 2010. However, one does not have to be an Excel expert to benefit from the course. Knowing how to enter and copy simple formulas involving relative and absolute cell addresses, how to use general-purpose Excel functions (for example, the If() function) and how to draw different types of graphs in Excel should be sufficient. This course involves in-class software demonstrations and “hands-on” practices. You will be expected to bring their laptop to class each week.
Description and/or course criteria last updated: 07/2012
|Sample Exam Questions/Problem Sets:|
|Sample Exam Question:
You are appointed to be the investment manager of a start-up fund for Bank of Chicago. You are determining where the fund’s assets should be invested during the current year. At present, $500,000 is available for investment in bonds, home loans, auto loans, and personal loans. You do not need to invest all $500,000. The annual rates of return on each type of investment are known to be the following: 10% for bonds; 16% for home loans; 13% for auto loans; 20% for personal loans. To ensure that the fund’s portfolio is not too risky, Bank of Chicago has placed the following three restrictions on the fund’s portfolio:
? The amount invested in personal loans cannot exceed the amount invested in bonds
? The amount invested in home loans cannot exceed the amount invested in auto loans
? No more than 25% of the total amount invested can be in personal loans
Your goal is to maximize the annual return on this investment portfolio.
Develop a linear optimization model to decide the optimal investment plan to maximize the annual return on this investment portfolio. Write down your decision variables and formulas for objective function and constraints.|
|Course Conditions and Course Related Items:|